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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2024 Apr 17 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 108 Publicado el 2200Z a las 17 Apr 2024IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 16-2100Z hasta 17-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
17/2004Z from Region 3638 (S17E15). There are currently 12 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(18 Apr, 19 Apr, 20 Apr).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 16-2100Z a 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 505 km/s at 16/2135Z. Total IMF
reached 10 nT at 16/2101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-9 nT at 16/2101Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (18 Apr) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (19 Apr, 20 Apr). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (18 Apr,
19 Apr, 20 Apr).
III. Probabilidades del evento 18 Apr a 20 Apr
| Clase M | 65% | 65% | 65% |
| Clase X | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 17 Apr 217 Previsto 18 Apr-20 Apr 210/200/190 Media de 90 Días 17 Apr 160
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 16 Apr 017/030 Estimado Afr/Ap 17 Apr 008/009 Previsto Afr/Ap 18 Apr-20 Apr 015/020-010/010-007/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 18 Apr a 20 Apr
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 20% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 05% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 60% | 25% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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