Space Weather Forecast - Debate

Emitido: 2026 Jun 13 0030 UTC
Preparado por el U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Actividad solar

Resumen 24 hr

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 4465 (N09E14, Cao/beta) produced the strongest flare of the period, a C5.2 at 12/0214 UTC. The region exhibited widespread decay over the past 24 hours. Region 4464 (S13W29, Dao/beta) saw growth in its trailer and intermediate spots. The remaining numbered spotted regions were either mostly stable or in gradual decay. Other activity included a small filament eruption that was observed near N02E40 beginning after 12/1600 UTC. Subsequent SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery contained a CME signature towards the NE. Analysis and modeling of this event is ongoing.

Predicción

Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels through 15 Jun, with a chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares, primarily due to the potential of Regions 4464 and 4465.

Partículas Energéticas

Resumen 24 hr

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit continued at low to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Predicción

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to increase to high levels over 13-14 Jun in response to high-speed stream influences. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels through 15 Jun.

Viento Solar

Resumen 24 hr

Solar wind parameters reflected the transition from a CIR into a negative polarity CH HSS. Total magnetic field strength decreased from a peak of 15 nT at 12/0122 UTC to a steady ~5 nT by 12/0715 UTC. The Bz component briefly reached a maximum southward deflection of -10 nT during the CIR. Solar wind speeds increased from ~500 km/s during the CIR to a peak speed between 600-700 km/s over 12/0600-0900UTC. A gradual decline was observed through the remainder of the reporting period. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in the negative sector.

Predicción

Solar wind enhancements, in response to -CH HSS influences, are expected to continue through 13 Jun. Further enhancements are anticipated to continue into 14 Jun, due to the anticipated arrival of combined effects from CMEs that departed the Sun on 09 and 11 Jun.

Geoespacio

Resumen 24 hr

The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active due to the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS.

Predicción

Geomagnetic field conditions are likely to reach G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels on 13 Jun due to the persistence of the high-speed stream combined with the anticipated arrival of CMEs that left the Sun over 09 Jun and 11 Jun. Conditions are expected to decrease to mostly active levels, with isolated G1 (Minor) storming periods, on 14 Jun as CME influences wane. Unsettled to active conditions are likely over 15 Jun.