Vaata pühapäev, 1 oktoober 2000 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Igale käesolevas aruandes mainitud päikesepurskele on kohaldatud Kosmose Ilmaennustuskeskuse (SWPC) skaalafaktor. SWPC skaleerimisteguri tõttu on päikesepursked esitatud 42% väiksemana kui samade teadusliku kvaliteediga andmete puhul. Meie arhiveeritud päikesepursete andmetest on skaleerimisstegur eemaldatud, et kajastada tegelikke füüsikalisi ühikuid.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2000 Oct 01 2200 UTC
Valminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-igaÜhine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 275 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 01 OCT 2000
IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 30-2100Z kuni 01-2100Z
SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. TWO OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED
X-RAY FLARES, AN X1 AT 30/2321Z AND M5 AT 01/0701Z, ARE BELIEVED TO
HAVE BEEN PRODUCED BY REGION 9169 THAT JUST RECENTLY PASSED BEHIND
THE WEST LIMB. A 200 SFU TENFLARE ACCOMPANIED THE M5 EVENT. A
LONG-DURATION M2 FLARE AT 01/1410Z IS BELIEVED TO HAVE ORIGINATED
FROM REGION 9178 (S22E24); THIS REGION ALSO PRODUCED NUMEROUS
C-CLASS FLARES. REGION 9176 (S10E15) PRODUCED A C3/SF FLARE WITH AN
ASSOCIATED TYPE II RADIO SWEEP (SHOCK SPEED 1100 KM/S). A 12-DEGREE
FILAMENT DISAPPEARED OVERNIGHT FROM N22W37. NEW REGION 9180
(S34W21) WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. WHILE REGION 9169, WHICH IS BELIEVED TO HAVE CAUSED
THE RECENT MAJOR FLARES, IS NOW WELL BEHIND THE LIMB, BOTH REGIONS
9176 (S09E18) AND 9178 REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING M-FLARES.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 30/2100Z TO 01/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM ACTIVE TO QUIET CONDITIONS. ACTIVE
CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED UNTIL APPROXIMATELY 01/06Z, AT WHICH POINT
THE SOLAR WIND SPEED AND INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD BEGAN TO DROP
TO NOMINAL LEVELS. RELATIVISTIC ELECTRONS AT GEO-SYNCHRONOUS ORBIT
REACHED MODERATE LEVELS.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE FIRST DAY, WITH ACTIVITY
INCREASING FOR THE SECOND AND THIRD DAYS. A RECURRENT CORONAL HOLE
WILL BE GEO-EFFECTIVELY POSITIONED BY DAY TWO. IN ADDITION, EFFECTS
FROM ANY OF THE MANY SOLAR EVENTS TODAY COULD IMPACT THE EARTH LATE
ON DAY TWO INTO DAY THREE.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 02 OCTkuni 04 OCT
| Klass M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Klass X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Prooton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN
|
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 01 OCT 202
Prognoositud 02 OCT-04 OCT 190/190/185
90 päeva keskmine 01 OCT 183
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
OBSERVED AFR/AP 30 SEP 025/045
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 01 OCT 015/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 02 OCT-04 OCT 010/010-012/012-015/015
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 02 OCT kuni 04 OCT
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel |
| Aktiivne | 15% | 25% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel |
| Aktiivne | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 15% | 20% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
VII. COMMENTS
EFFECTIVE 2 OCT 2000, SEC WILL ISSUE ITS TEXT PRODUCTS IN MIXED
CASE VS. ALL UPPER CASE. THIS CHANGE WILL BE VISIBLE ON ALL SEC
PRODUCT DELIVERY SYSTEMS EXCEPT FOR TELETYPE CIRCUITS. ONLY THE
CASE OF THE TEXT IN EACH PRODUCT WILL CHANGE, NOT THE FORMAT OR
SPACING WITHIN THE PRODUCT. FOR DETAILS SEE OUR WEBSITE AT
SEC.NOAA.GOV/MIXEDCASE.HTML
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