Vaata reede, 20 juuni 2003 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Igale käesolevas aruandes mainitud päikesepurskele on kohaldatud Kosmose Ilmaennustuskeskuse (SWPC) skaalafaktor. SWPC skaleerimisteguri tõttu on päikesepursked esitatud 42% väiksemana kui samade teadusliku kvaliteediga andmete puhul. Meie arhiveeritud päikesepursete andmetest on skaleerimisstegur eemaldatud, et kajastada tegelikke füüsikalisi ühikuid.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2003 Jun 20 2200 UTC
Valminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-igaÜhine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 171 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 20 Jun 2003
IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 19-2100Z kuni 20-2100Z
Solar activity increased to low levels today. Region
386 (S07E17) produced two low levels C-class flares today along with
several B-class flares. The northern portion of the penumbral field
appears to have undergone some rotation since yesterday while the
delta magnetic structure in the southern leading edge of group has
changed little during the period and remains intact. Region 387
(N18E36) was quiescent today although spot coverage and magnetic
complexity have both shown growth over the period. Region 389
(S12E14) was newly numbered today.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to range
from low to moderate levels. Region 386 remains capable of
producing an isolated major event.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 19-2100Z kuni 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly unsettled levels today as
effects from the western most recurrent coronal hole wanes. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels today.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled levels. Active conditions
may exist especially at high latitudes beginning late on day two
with the return of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 21 Junkuni 23 Jun
| Klass M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Klass X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Prooton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | yellow
|
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 20 Jun 117
Prognoositud 21 Jun-23 Jun 115/115/120
90 päeva keskmine 20 Jun 125
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 19 Jun 016/018
Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 20 Jun 010/015
Prognoositud Afr/Ap 21 Jun-23 Jun 010/015-012/015-012/020
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 21 Jun kuni 23 Jun
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel |
| Aktiivne | 15% | 25% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel |
| Aktiivne | 30% | 30% | 40% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
99999
PLAIN
K-Indices:
On 16 June, it was determined that a scaling problem exists with the Boulder magnetometer instrument. While this problem, and its fix are being investigated the primary instrument for Boulder K-indices has been switched to the Boulder USGS (via Domsat) magnetometer, effective 1500 UTC on 16 June.
GOES Protons:
To ensure continued operational monitoring of important energetic particle data, it is necessary to reassign primary/secondary designations for the GOES Space Environment Monitor (SEM) detectors. GOES 11 (113W) is now the primary satellite for protons. GOES 12 will continue as the primary satellite for magnetometer, X-ray, and electron measurements. GOES 10 (135W) will be the secondary satellite for all SEM sensors - magnetometer, X-ray, and energetic particles. Because of the degraded state of the proton data on GOES-10, its designation as the secondary source for proton data is a short-term solution. More permanent solutions have been identified and are being evaluated. Users will be notified when we define and schedule a permanent fix. Further details can be found at http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html.
99999
Kõik ajad UTC-s
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