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SIDC igapäevane bülletään päikese ja geomagnetilise aktiivsuse kohta

Välja antud: 2025 Jun 14 1246 UTC

SIDC ennustus

Päikesepursked ehk loited

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Päikese prootonid

Quiet

	10 cm vool	Ap
14 Jun 2025	143	017
15 Jun 2025	143	017
16 Jun 2025	143	017

Päikese aktiivsed piirkonnad ja pursked

Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours, with a total of one M-class flare and multiple C-class flares recorded. A total of nine numbered sunspot groups were present on the visible solar disk. The most significant event was an M1.2 flare (SIDC Flare 4627), which peaked at 21:10 UTC on June 13. This flare was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 513 (NOAA Active Region 4105), located at S16W60, a region with a Beta-Gamma magnetic configuration that remained stable during the period. Flaring activity also came from SIDC Sunspot Group 523 (NOAA AR 4114), which displayed a Beta-Gamma configuration and continued to grow, producing several C-class flares, including a C5.0 flare at 02:43 UTC on June 14. Given the number of sunspot groups, and the complexity of some of them, the solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares expected and M-class flares likely.

Krooniaine massiline väljavool

Several narrow outflows were observed in the available LASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours. However, no clear Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were identified in the data.

Krooniauk

The large SIDC Coronal Hole 104 (mid-latitude south coronal hole with a negative polarity) is currently transiting the central meridian. It is a recurrent coronal that first reached the central meridian on June 08.

Päikesetuul

Solar wind conditions were moderately disturbed over the past 24 hours. The solar wind speed showed a gradual increase, ranging from approximately 373 km/s to peaks near 542 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) remained elevated at times, with values fluctuating and reaching up to about 17.5 nT. The southward component (Bz) was predominantly negative and occasionally dropped to values near -14.2 nT. The phi angle was negative at first and on June 13 around 22:30 UTC it switched to the positive sector. These conditions reflect the continued influence of a high-speed stream, likely from the trailing portion of SIDC Coronal Hole 118, with possible interaction from transient solar wind structures. In approximately 2-3 days, a new high-speed stream associated with SIDC Coronal Hole 104 (a mid- latitude southern coronal hole with negative polarity, which crossed the central meridian on June 12) may lead to renewed enhancements in solar wind conditions.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were unsettled to stormy during the reporting period. Globally, the NOAA Kp index reached storm levels (Kp = 6) on June 13 between 12:00 UTC and 00:00 UTC, and remained elevated with active periods through early June 14. Locally in Belgium, the K_BEL index recorded active to minor storm conditions, with values reaching 5 during the peak disturbances, between 15:00 UTC on June 13 and 02:00 UTC on June 14. The geomagnetic activity was driven by sustained southward Bz and elevated Bt. Conditions have since started to ease, with geomagnetic indices indicating a return to unsettled or quiet levels by June 14. A generally quiet to unsettled geomagnetic environment is expected over the next 24 hours, although brief active periods cannot be excluded if residual solar wind disturbances persist. Another round of elevated geomagnetic activity could follow in about 3 days with the expected arrival of the high-speed stream associated with SIDC Coronal Hole 104.

Prootoni voo tasemed

The greater-than-10 MeV proton flux, as measured by GOES-18, remained at background levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to stay at background levels throughout the next 24 hours. No solar energetic particle events were detected, and none are currently anticipated.

Elektronivoog geostatsionaarsel orbiidil

The greater-than-2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-18 and GOES-19 satellite recorded very brief periodes with values reaching this threshold. Electron fluxes are expected to stay mostly below the alert threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence remained at normal to moderate levels and is anticipated to persist at those levels throughout the next day.

Tänane hinnanguline rahvusvaheline päikeselaikude arv (ISN): 147, põhineb 16 jaamadel.

Päikese indeksid 13 Jun 2025

Catania Wolfi number	166
10cm päikesevoog	143
AK Chambon La Forêt	056
AK Wingst	047
Hinnanguline Ap	053
Hinnanguline rahvusvaheline päikeselaikude arv	146 - Põhineb 26 jaamal

Märkimisväärsete sündmuste kokkuvõte

Andmed on esitanud Päikeseinfektide Andmeanalüüsi Keskus (Solar Influences Data Analysis Center)© - SIDC - Töötleb SpaceWeatherLive

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