SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN HIGH FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. REGION 8210 (S17W21) PRODUCED AN X1/3B TENFLARE (1300 FLUX UNITS) THAT REACHED MAXIMUM AT 02/1342 UT. IT WAS ACCOMPANIED BY A PARTIAL-HALO CORONAL MASS EJECTION (REPORTED BY SOHO/LASCO OPERATIONS), SIGNIFICANT RADIO BURSTS ACROSS THE SPECTRUM AND A TYPE IV SWEEP. THE CME WAS CONCENTRATED OFF THE NW LIMB AND THE MEASURED SPEED WAS APPROXIMATELY 750 KM/S. REGION 8210 ALSO PARTICIPATED IN AN M1 X-RAY EVENT ON 01/2254 UT SHARED WITH REGION 8214 (N27E19). THIS EARLIER EVENT MAY ALSO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A PARTIAL-HALO CME CONCENTRATED OFF THE NE LIMB. REGION 8210 IS EXTREMELY MAGNETICALLY COMPLEX, AND REGIONS 8210 AND 8214 ARE BOTH CONTINUING TO GROW IN SIZE AND SPOT COUNT. NEW REGION 8217 (S17E77), A SIMPLE A-TYPE GROUP, WAS NUMBERED TODAY. THERE ARE CONTINUING INDICATIONS OF ACTIVE REGIONS BEYOND THE EAST LIMB THAT WILL BE ROTATING ONTO THE DISK IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS. REGION 8210 RETAINS THE EXTREME MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY ASSOCIATED WITH MAJOR X-RAY EVENTS, AND THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY FROM REGION 8214 IS INCREASING AS IT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP.

GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY REACHED PERIODS AT MAJOR STORM LEVELS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE STORM SUDDEN COMMENCEMENT OCCURRED AT 01/2158 UT. IT IS PRESUMED TO HAVE ORIGINATED WITH A MAJOR SOLAR EVENT ON 29 APRIL. PRECEDING THE SSC, THE PASSAGE OF AN INTERPLANETARY SHOCK WAS OBSERVED IN ACE SOLAR WIND DATA AT APPROXIMATELY 01/2124 UT. A GREATER THAN 100 MEV SATELLITE PROTON EVENT BEGAN 02/1405 AND REACHED 7.6 PFU AT 1540 UT. A GREATER THAN 10 MEV SATELLITE PROTON EVENT BEGAN AT 02/1420UT AND REACHED 150 PFU AT 1650 UT. BOTH EVENTS ARE STILL IN PROGRESS AT REPORT ISSUE TIME. A POLAR CAP ABSORPTION EVENT IS IN PROGRESS, AS WELL AS A FORBUSH DECREASE OF APPROXIMATELY 5 PERCENT.

GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DECLINE TOWARD GENERALLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS TOMORROW, BUT A NEW STORM COMMENCEMENT IS EXPECTED AFTER MIDDAY ON 04 MAY FROM THE X-CLASS SOLAR ACTIVITY ON 02 MAY. MAJOR STORM CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLE ON 05 MAY. THE SATELLITE PROTON EVENT AT GREATER THAN 10 MEV ENERGIES IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH 04 MAY, AND COULD CONTINUE LONGER IF NEW SOLAR ACTIVITY OCCURS.

  Observé       02 MAY 117
  Prévisionnel   03 MAY-05 MAY  130/140/150
  Moyenne des 90 derniers jours        02 MAY 104

OBSERVED AFR/AP 01 MAY  008/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 02 MAY  045/060
PREDICTED AFR/AP 03 MAY-05 MAY  020/035-020/020-050/050