SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED HIGH. REGION 8674 PRODUCED AN IMPULSIVE X1/ AT 28/1805Z. THIS EVENT WAS ACCOMPANIED BY A 1000 SFU BURST AT 2695 MHZ, STRONG TYPE II EMISSION, AND MAUNA LOA OBSERVED A CORONAL MASS EJECTION AT SW60. REGION 8674 ALSO PRODUCED AN M1/1F AT 28/0102Z WITH A 290 SFU BURST AT 2695 MHZ. THIS REGION WAS STABLE IN AREA AND MAGNETICALLY COMPLEX, ESPECIALLY IN THE TRAILER WHERE A DELTA CONFIGURATION AND HIGH GRADIENTS EXISTED. RECENT VECTOR MAGNETOGRAPH DATA SHOWED SIGNIFICANT SHEAR ONLY IN THAT AREA. OTHER REGIONS WERE GENERALLY STABLE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NEW REGION 8681 (N21E09). THIS REGION EMERGED RAPIDLY DURING THE PERIOD AND CONSISTS OF BRIGHT PLAGE AND MANY SMALL SPOTS. SEVERAL CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS WERE OBSERVED DURING THE PERIOD. AT THIS TIME, NONE APPEAR TO BE DIRECTED SQUARELY AT THE EARTH.

SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MODERATE TO HIGH. REGION 8674 WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE M-CLASS EVENTS AND OCCASIONAL X-CLASS EVENTS. SEVERAL OTHER REGIONS POSSESS THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS - CONTINUED GROWTH IN NEW REGION 8681 WOULD PUT IT IN THAT CATEGORY AS WELL.

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD REMAINED AT QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS. THE EARTH CONTINUED TO EXPERIENCE A HIGH SPEED LOW DENSITY SOLAR WIND STREAM. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT REACHED HIGH LEVELS NEAR 28/1200Z.

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE AT QUIET TO SLIGHTLY ACTIVE LEVELS FOR MOST OF THE 29-30 AUG PERIOD. ON 31 AUG, A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED AS A RESULT OF THE X1/CME EVENT MENTIONED ABOVE. HOWEVER, IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE EARTH WILL RECEIVE ONLY AN OBLIQUE HIT FROM THIS EVENT AND ISOLATED ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THAT DAY. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES SHOULD REMAIN AT HIGH LEVELS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. THERE IS A MODERATE POSSIBILITY OF AN ENERGETIC PROTON EVENT DURING THE PERIOD FROM REGION 8674.

  Observé       28 AUG 248
  Prévisionnel   29 AUG-31 AUG  240/238/225
  Moyenne des 90 derniers jours        28 AUG 168

OBSERVED AFR/AP 27 AUG  009/013
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 28 AUG  013/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 29 AUG-31 AUG  010/010-010/010-012/012