SOLAR ACTIVITY INCREASED TO MODERATE LEVELS. REGION 8765 (S12W60) PRODUCED THREE M-CLASS FLARES, AN M1/1N AT 21/0014Z ASSOCIATED WITH A 280 SFU TENFLARE, AN M2/SN AT 21/1017Z, AND AN M3/2N AT 21/1820Z ASSOCIATED WITH A 270 SFU TENFLARE. THIS REGION SHOWED A SLIGHT DECREASE IN MAGNETIC FIELD INTENSITY, BUT REMAINED LARGE AND STRUCTURALLY COMPLEX, POSSIBLY INCLUDING A MAGNETIC DELTA CONFIGURATION WITHIN ITS INTERIOR SPOTS. REGION 8771 (S16E01) SHOWED A MAGNETIC DELTA CONFIGURATION WITHIN ITS TRAILER PORTION AND UNDERWENT MINOR DEVELOPMENT. IT PRODUCED AN M3/2B FLARE AT 20/2235Z ASSOCIATED WITH A TYPE II RADIO SWEEP (EST. VELOCITY 700 KM/SEC). REGION 8768 (N16W65) SHOWED A MINOR INCREASE IN SPOT COUNT DURING THE PERIOD AND PRODUCED ISOLATED SUBFLARES, NONE OF WHICH WERE ASSOCIATED WITH SIGNIFICANT X-RAY EMISSION. REGION 8766 (N18W36) DECAYED SLIGHTLY. THE REMAINING REGIONS WERE SMALL AND STABLE INCLUDING NEWLY NUMBERED REGIONS 8777 (S26E40) AND 8778 (S14E62).

SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT MODERATE LEVELS. REGIONS 8765 AND 8771 ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE M-CLASS FLARES. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR A MAJOR FLARE, ESPECIALLY FROM REGION 8765.

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY RANGED FROM QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS OCCURRED AROUND 21/0600Z FOLLOWING A 3-HOUR PERIOD OF SUSTAINED SOUTHWARD IMF BZ. THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS DURING THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX BRIEFLY REACHED HIGH LEVELS LATE IN THE PERIOD.

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS. ACTIVE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE DURING 23 NOVEMBER DUE TO CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX IS EXPECTED TO BE AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS.

  Observé       21 NOV 210
  Prévisionnel   22 NOV-24 NOV  195/185/170
  Moyenne des 90 derniers jours        21 NOV 167

OBSERVED AFR/AP 20 NOV  007/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 21 NOV  015/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 22 NOV-24 NOV  012/015-015/018-012/015