SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN HIGH. AN IMPULSIVE CLASS X1 FLARE OCCURRED IN REGION 8882 (S15W58) BEGINNING AT 02/0828Z FOLLOWED BY A CLASS M5 EVENT IN THE SAME REGION BEGINNING AT 02/1335Z. TYPE II RADIO BURSTS OCCURRED IN CONJUNCTION WITH BOTH EVENTS. BOTH EVENTS PRODUCED ONLY LOW TO MODERATE TOTAL ENERGY IN TERMS OF THEIR RADIO AND X-RAY BURSTS AND THEIR DURATION. IMPRESSIVE CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS OVER THE SOUTHWEST LIMB OF THE SUN FOLLOWED BOTH FLARES. THE LATER CME WAS FOLLOWED BY FURTHER EJECTION OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST LIMB. REGION 8882 AND REGION 8891 (S15W04) REMAIN COMPLEX AND POTENTIAL SOURCES OF MAJOR FLARES. THE SUN APPEARS TO BE IN AN UNSETTLED MODE. MINOR SHORT-LIVED SUNSPOT GROUPS ARE APPEARING AT VARIOUS LOCATIONS ON THE DISK AND SMALL FLARES ARE OCCURRING IN MANY OF THE ACTIVE REGIONS.

SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MODERATE TO HIGH. CLASS M EVENTS ARE EXPECTED AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF MORE CLASS X EVENTS.

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. THERE WAS A VERY SMALL ENHANCEMENT OF ENERGETIC PROTONS GREATER THAN 10 MEV MEASURED BY GOES FOLLOWING THE CLASS X EVENT EARLIER TODAY. ENERGETIC ELECTRONS GREATER THAN 2 MEV AS MEASURED BY GOES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT HAVE REMAINED BELOW ALERT THRESHOLDS TODAY.

THE POTENTIAL FOR GEOMAGNETIC STORMS IS UNCLEAR. THE CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE PRIMARILY EARTH-DIRECTED, BUT THEY MAY HAVE AT LEAST A MODERATE IMPACT IN TERMS OF GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY. THE FORECAST IS FOR ACTIVE CONDITIONS WITH A CHANCE OF A MINOR TO MAJOR STORM. THERE IS A CHANCE OF ANOTHER INCREASE IN ENERGETIC PARTICLES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A RESULT OF THE PASSAGE OF SHOCKS FROM THE CME TODAY.

  Observé       02 MAR 213
  Prévisionnel   03 MAR-05 MAR  210/210/205
  Moyenne des 90 derniers jours        02 MAR 169

OBSERVED AFR/AP 01 MAR  016/019
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 02 MAR  012/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 03 MAR-05 MAR  012/012-025/028-025/025