Affichage des archives de mardi, 10 avril 2001
Rapport d'activité solaire
Chaque éruption solaire mentionnée dans ce rapport a été ajustée selon un facteur d'échelle fourni par le Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Ce facteur a conduit à une sous-estimation de 42% des éruptions solaires par rapport aux données de qualité scientifique. Nous avons supprimé ce facteur d'échelle de nos données archivées pour refléter les véritables unités physiques.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2001 Apr 10 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 100 publié à 2200Z le 10 Apr 2001IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 09-2100Z au 10-2100Z Solar activity remained at high levels. Region 9415
(S23W19) produced a long-duration X2/3b parallel-ribbon flare at
10/0526 UTC. This flare was associated with a 4000 SFU Tenflare,
Type II and IV radio sweeps, a 14-degree filament disappearance, and
a fast full-halo CME. Region 9415 showed decay in its trailer spots,
but maintained a strong magnetic delta configuration in its leader
portion, where a minor increase in spots was noted. Minor growth
occurred in Region 9417 (S08W39). It produced a C6/Sf at 10/1451
UTC. Minor growth was also observed in Region 9425 (S25W49). The
remaining regions were simply-structured and stable. No new regions
were assigned.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate to high levels. Region 9415 is expected to produce another
major flare during the period.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 09-2100Z au 10-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. A
greater than 10 MeV proton event followed today's X2/3b flare. It
began at 10/0850 UTC and was in progress as the period ended. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux was near 100 PFU at the close of the
period and gradually increasing. A greater than 100 MeV proton flux
enhancement was also associated with the X2/3b flare. A polar cap
absorption (PCA) event began around 10/1200 UTC and continued as the
period ended. Thus far, maximum absorption associated with the PCA
event has been estimated at 8.5 dB. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
A major geomagnetic storm is
expected during 11 - 12 April in response to halo-CMEs observed on
09 - 10 April. Active to major storm levels are expected during this
disturbance with brief severe storm levels possible at high
latitudes. Unsettled to minor storm levels are expected on 13 April
as the storm subsides. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is
expected to continue through most of the period. The PCA event is
expected to end during the latter half of the period. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high
levels during the period.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 11 Apr au 13 Apr
| Classe M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Classe X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 90% | 80% | 25% |
| PCAF | In Progress | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 10 Apr 170 Prévisionnel 11 Apr-13 Apr 165/165/160 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 10 Apr 167
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 09 Apr 017/019 Estimé Afr/Ap 10 Apr 013/009 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 11 Apr-13 Apr 050/040-050/090-020/030
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 11 Apr au 13 Apr
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 15% | 15% | 35% |
| Tempête mineure | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 45% | 45% | 10% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 15% | 25% | 35% |
| Tempête mineure | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 50% | 35% | 15% |
Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC
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| Dernière classe X | 18/01/2026 | X1.9 |
| Dernière classe M | 21/01/2026 | M3.4 |
| Dernier orage géomagnétique | 22/01/2026 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Jours sans taches solaires | |
|---|---|
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