Affichage des archives de jeudi, 1 novembre 2001
Rapport d'activité solaire
Chaque éruption solaire mentionnée dans ce rapport a été ajustée selon un facteur d'échelle fourni par le Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Ce facteur a conduit à une sous-estimation de 42% des éruptions solaires par rapport aux données de qualité scientifique. Nous avons supprimé ce facteur d'échelle de nos données archivées pour refléter les véritables unités physiques.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2001 Nov 01 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 305 publié à 2200Z le 01 Nov 2001IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 31-2100Z au 01-2100Z Solar activity has been high due to five M-class events
observed during the past 24 hours. The largest of these was an M3/Sf
at 1210 UTC from newly numbered Region 9687 (S19E71). Region 9687
produced three additional M-class events and exhibited frequent
brightenings throughout the day. An additional M-class event (M1/Sf)
came from Region 9678 (N07W75) at 0653 UTC. Region 9682 (N11W22)
continues to dominate the disk in terms of apparent size and
magnetic complexity, and also exhibited occasional flare activity
during the day, some of which were occurring at the same time as
flare activity in Region 9687. SXI imagery clearly indicated,
however, that new Region 9687 was the dominant contributor to the
X-ray flux during the four M-class events mentioned previously.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. M-class events should continue, with regions 9687
and 9682 being the main contributors to activity. There continues to
be a chance for an isolated major flare event or proton producing
event during the next three days.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 31-2100Z au 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels
during the past 24 hours. Approximately five hours after yesterday's
shock at 31/1352 UTC, the interplanetary magnetic field turned
southward and maintained moderately strong negative values (-8 to
-12 nT) from 31/1810 UTC until around 01/1710 UTC. This led to
mostly active levels, with a minor storm period from 0600-0900 UTC.
At forecast issue time activity had declined to unsettled and Bz was
weakly northwards.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled for the next three days.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 02 Nov au 04 Nov
| Classe M | 90% | 90% | 90% |
| Classe X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 01 Nov 236 Prévisionnel 02 Nov-04 Nov 225/225/230 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 01 Nov 204
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 31 Oct 008/009 Estimé Afr/Ap 01 Nov 025/025 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 02 Nov-04 Nov 012/012-012/010-010/010
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 02 Nov au 04 Nov
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Tempête mineure | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Tempête mineure | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 10% | 05% |
Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC
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| Dernier orage géomagnétique | 20/01/2026 | Kp8 (G4) |
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