Solar activity was low. The most interesting flare of the past day was a long-duration C6/Sf at 02/2134 UTC in Region 9926 (N15W56). This event was associated with a filament eruption, Type II sweep, and a CME visible in LASCO images that was apparently directed towards the northwest. CME material was also seen directed towards the southeast but preliminary analysis suggests that this may be related to a separate event, possibly from beyond the east limb. Region 9934 (S17E48) remains the largest and most complex sunspot group on the disk and is currently a moderately-large E-type group with a delta configuration in the leader spot complex. This region has produced flares during the past day but none of them have had significant x-ray output. New Regions 9937 (S09E68) and 9938 (S04E72) are rotating onto the disk.

Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. C-class flares are expected to continue from a number of sunspot groups. Region 9934 remains the most likely source of M-class activity.

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Enhanced activity levels are possible on 05-06 May but a significant disturbance from the LDE/CME discussed in Part IA is not expected.

  Observé       03 May 179
  Prévisionnel   04 May-06 May  185/190/195
  Moyenne des 90 derniers jours        03 May 189

  Observé Afr/Ap 02 May  004/007
  Estimé     Afr/Ap 03 May  005/007
  Prévisionnel    Afr/Ap 04 May-06 May  005/007-010/010-010/010