Affichage des archives de lundi, 20 mai 2002
Rapport d'activité solaire
Chaque éruption solaire mentionnée dans ce rapport a été ajustée selon un facteur d'échelle fourni par le Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Ce facteur a conduit à une sous-estimation de 42% des éruptions solaires par rapport aux données de qualité scientifique. Nous avons supprimé ce facteur d'échelle de nos données archivées pour refléter les véritables unités physiques.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2002 May 20 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 140 publié à 2200Z le 20 May 2002IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 19-2100Z au 20-2100Z Solar activity was high. Region 9961 (S22E62) produced
two M-class flares and one X-class flare during the past 24 hours.
The X-flare was an X2/2n at 1527 UTC and was impulsive. Nonetheless
this flare was associated with a narrow-width CME from the southeast
limb. The first M-flare was an M4 at 1029 UTC and the second was an
M5 at 1053 UTC. Both of these events were impulsive and were
attributed to 9961 based on SOHO/EIT data. Region 9961 appears to be
a compact, magnetically complex group which has at least a gamma
classification, and possibly a magnetic delta. Region 9957 (N09E22)
continues to be the largest group on the disk and has a delta
configuration in a compact collection of spots. A partial halo CME
was observed in C2 at 19/2026 UTC and was centered over the
southwest limb. EIT images at the same time confirmed a front-side
source from the southwest part of the disk.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be
mostly moderate, but there is a chance for an additional major flare
event from either of Region 9961 or 9957.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 19-2100Z au 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled during the past
24 hours. There was an isolated active period from 1500-1800 UTC. An
interval of enhanced solar wind flow passed the ACE solar wind
spacecraft beginning at 0257 UTC and lasted about 10 hours. The Bz
magnetic field component was mostly negative with typical values
between -5 nT and -10 nT. The onset of the this flow at Earth caused
a sudden impulse at 0342 UTC, which measured 22 nT on the Boulder
magnetometer.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field should be
mostly unsettled tomorrow and quiet to unsettled on the second day.
Activity on the third day is expected increase slightly to unsettled
with some isolated active periods due to possible effects from
today's partial halo CME that began at 19/2026 UTC.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 21 May au 23 May
| Classe M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Classe X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 20 May 171 Prévisionnel 21 May-23 May 170/170/165 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 20 May 184
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 19 May 008/018 Estimé Afr/Ap 20 May 010/015 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 21 May-23 May 008/010-005/008-012/015
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 21 May au 23 May
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Tempête mineure | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Tempête mineure | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 05% | 15% |
Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC
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La Météo Spatiale en faits
| Dernière classe X | 18/01/2026 | X1.9 |
| Dernière classe M | 21/01/2026 | M3.4 |
| Dernier orage géomagnétique | 22/01/2026 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Jours sans taches solaires | |
|---|---|
| Dernier jour sans taches solaires | 08/06/2022 |
| Nombre mensuel moyen de taches solaires | |
|---|---|
| décembre 2025 | 124 +32.2 |
| janvier 2026 | 119.6 -4.4 |
| 30 derniers jours | 122 +9.1 |