Solar activity was moderate due to the occurrence of two M-class events, the first being an impulsive M1.0 flare observed at 14/2226 UTC. No corresponding optical report was received, however available H-alpha imagery suggests Region 195 (S15E53) as the likely source. This region appears to be developing a delta configuration in its leading spot, and has grown in size and spot count. At 15/0124 UTC, an optically uncorrelated M2.4 flare occurred. LASCO imagery following this event suggests an east limb source, possibly the newly numbered Region 198 (S16E78), which has just rotated into view. Other activity included a series of C-class events from Region 192 (N13W47), the largest being a C8/Sf at 15/0536 UTC. This region has exhibited significant growth in size and complexity over the past two days. Region 191 (S18W16) remains the largest and most complex region on the visible disk, but produced only minor C-class activity today.

Solar activity is expected to be moderate, with a chance for isolated major flare activity over the next three days. The regions discussed in section 1A above are all likely candidates for notable flare activity.

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active with isolated minor storm periods possible during the first two days of the forecast period, under the influence of a favorably positioned coronal hole. Predominantly unsettled conditions are expected by day three, along with elevated flux levels for energetic electrons in the wake of the expected coronal hole effects.

  Observé       15 Nov 198
  Prévisionnel   16 Nov-18 Nov  200/200/195
  Moyenne des 90 derniers jours        15 Nov 177

  Observé Afr/Ap 14 Nov  005/009
  Estimé     Afr/Ap 15 Nov  010/011
  Prévisionnel    Afr/Ap 16 Nov-18 Nov  020/030-018/025-015/015