Affichage des archives de vendredi, 25 avril 2003
Rapport d'activité solaire
Chaque éruption solaire mentionnée dans ce rapport a été ajustée selon un facteur d'échelle fourni par le Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Ce facteur a conduit à une sous-estimation de 42% des éruptions solaires par rapport aux données de qualité scientifique. Nous avons supprimé ce facteur d'échelle de nos données archivées pour refléter les véritables unités physiques.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2003 Apr 25 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 115 publié à 2200Z le 25 Apr 2003IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 24-2100Z au 25-2100Z Solar activity remained at moderate levels today. The
largest flare of the period was an M1/Sf which occurred at 25/0540Z
from Region 346 (N16E61) and had an associated Type II radio sweep
with an estimated shock velocity of 814 km/s. There seems to be
little magnetic complexity to this region based on a single Hsx spot
seen in white-light. Region 337 (S14W13) appears to have changed
little since yesterday and remains a beta-gamma magnetic complex.
Region 338 (N18W58) produced the majority of the flare activity
throughout the interval which was limited to C-class events.
Magnetically, this region appears to be in a decay phase as a
single delta complex remains apparent verses the several complexes
analyzed earlier in the period. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 338 remains capable of producing
M-class events.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 24-2100Z au 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly active to minor storm
levels. High speed solar wind speeds along with embedded transient
activity are believed to be responsible for the elevated conditions.
The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit
reached high levels again today.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to minor storm levels with isolated major
storm conditions possible throughout the period. High speed coronal
hole flow may continue to be enhanced by transient activity for the
entire interval. A weak CME impact from the M5 flare on April 23 is
possible on day one. Further CME effects are possible on day two
resulting from the M3 flare that occurred on 24 April. The M1 that
occurred today may have a very weak impact late on day two into day
three.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 26 Apr au 28 Apr
| Classe M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Classe X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 25 Apr 144 Prévisionnel 26 Apr-28 Apr 145/150/145 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 25 Apr 126
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 24 Apr 024/024 Estimé Afr/Ap 25 Apr 020/025 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 26 Apr-28 Apr 020/025-020/025-015/020
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 26 Apr au 28 Apr
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 45% | 45% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 40% | 40% | 45% |
| Tempête mineure | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 20% | 20% | 15% |
Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC
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La Météo Spatiale en faits
| Dernière classe X | 18/01/2026 | X1.9 |
| Dernière classe M | 21/01/2026 | M3.4 |
| Dernier orage géomagnétique | 22/01/2026 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Jours sans taches solaires | |
|---|---|
| Dernier jour sans taches solaires | 08/06/2022 |
| Nombre mensuel moyen de taches solaires | |
|---|---|
| décembre 2025 | 124 +32.2 |
| janvier 2026 | 114.4 -9.6 |
| 30 derniers jours | 118.1 +9.1 |