Affichage des archives de mardi, 20 janvier 2004
Rapport d'activité solaire
Chaque éruption solaire mentionnée dans ce rapport a été ajustée selon un facteur d'échelle fourni par le Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Ce facteur a conduit à une sous-estimation de 42% des éruptions solaires par rapport aux données de qualité scientifique. Nous avons supprimé ce facteur d'échelle de nos données archivées pour refléter les véritables unités physiques.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2004 Jan 20 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 020 publié à 2200Z le 20 Jan 2004IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 19-2100Z au 20-2100Z Solar activity was high. Region 540 (S14W22) produced
an M6/2n flare at 20/0743Z. Radio bursts associated with this flare
included a 4500 sfu burst on 245 MHz and Type II sweep with a shock
speed of 950 km/s. A CME was visible on LASCO imagery. Region 540
also produced an impressive long duration C5 flare that occurred
between 19/2202Z through 20/0229Z, peaking at 20/0045Z. A full halo
CME was observed with this event. Soon after the eruption in Region
540, segments of the large circular filament in the northwest
quadrant also erupted. Region 540 maintains a weak delta
configuration in its trailing spots, but further decay in total area
was also noted. The trailing spots in Region 542 (N10W03) have been
identified as a separate region and were numbered as Region 544.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Though in decay, Region 540 still maintains potential
for isolated M-class flares. The remaining three spot groups on the
visible disk have potential for C-class activity.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 19-2100Z au 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Solar wind speed is in
gradual decline as a large transequatorial coronal hole rotates out
of a geoeffective position. Solar wind speed decreased to near 500
km/s, but periods of southward Bz generated occasional active
periods. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to major storming over the next three
days. Quiet to active periods are expected on 21 January. The full
halo CME observed on LASCO imagery at 20/0006Z will likely impact
the geomagnetic field early on 22 January. Active to major storm
periods are possible. Unsettled to active conditions are expected on
January 23 as the storm subsides.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 21 Jan au 23 Jan
| Classe M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Classe X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 20 Jan 129 Prévisionnel 21 Jan-23 Jan 130/130/130 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 20 Jan 138
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 19 Jan 010/017 Estimé Afr/Ap 20 Jan 018/022 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 21 Jan-23 Jan 012/015-035/045-015/025
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 21 Jan au 23 Jan
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 25% | 45% | 35% |
| Tempête mineure | 10% | 25% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 15% | 05% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 45% | 40% |
| Tempête mineure | 15% | 35% | 20% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 20% | 10% |
Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC
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La Météo Spatiale en faits
| Dernière classe X | 18/01/2026 | X1.9 |
| Dernière classe M | 21/01/2026 | M3.4 |
| Dernier orage géomagnétique | 22/01/2026 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Jours sans taches solaires | |
|---|---|
| Dernier jour sans taches solaires | 08/06/2022 |
| Nombre mensuel moyen de taches solaires | |
|---|---|
| décembre 2025 | 124 +32.2 |
| janvier 2026 | 117.9 -6.1 |
| 30 derniers jours | 121.2 +12.1 |