Affichage des archives de dimanche, 17 février 2013

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2013 Feb 17 1157 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)

Géomagnétisme

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
17 Feb 2013	108	006
18 Feb 2013	112	007
19 Feb 2013	116	011

Bulletin

Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours, with only a C1.0 flare on Feb. 17 (0036 UT peak time) from a new region, NOAA AR 1675, which emerged on Feb. 16. This is the main source for additional C flares in the next 48 hours, together, albeit with a lower probability, with NOAA AR 1671 and 1673. Geomagnetic activity was unsettled to active at planetary levels and reached even minor storm conditions at local level (K=5 at Dourbes from 15 to 18UT). This corresponds to a small shock observed by the ACE spacecraft around 1200 UT, linked to a moderate fast solar wind stream, associated with a coronal hole becoming geoeffective. Bz excursions down to -10 nT were observed on that day around 1400UT. We expect quiet conditions to prevail for the next 48 hours, and then reach unsettled to possibly active conditions for isolated periods, by the end of Feb. 19, or the the first half of Feb. 20, due to the arrival of the CME of Feb. 15.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 061, sur la base de 05 stations.

Indices solaires pour 16 Feb 2013

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	///
Flux solaire à 10 cm	103
AK Chambon La Forêt	019
AK Wingst	010
Ap estimé	011
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	021 - Basé sur 07 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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