Affichage des archives de samedi, 13 avril 2013

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2013 Apr 13 1248 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)

Géomagnétisme

Severe geomagnetic storm expected (A>=100 or K>=7)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Warning condition

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
13 Apr 2013	140	039
14 Apr 2013	142	045
15 Apr 2013	143	008

Bulletin

Catania sunspot groups 40 and 43 (NOAA ARs 1718 and 1719 respectively) show the signs of decay, although these two active regions (as well as Catania sunspot group 45, NOAA AR 1721) have beta-gamma configuration of the photospheric magnetic field. M3.3 flare was detected on April 12 peaking at 20:38 UT in the Catania sunspot group 40 (NOAA AR 1718). It was not associated with a CME. The delta sunspot in the Catania sunspot group 43 (NOAA AR 1719) does not exist anymore, so an X-flare (and an SEP event) is not very likely (although an Earth-directed CME remains possible). We expect further flaring activity on the M-level, with a non-negligible chance for an isolated X-class flare. The proton flux at energies above 10 MeV is currently below the SEP event threshold, although it still exceeds significantly the background level. In such a situation, a relatively small increase of the proton flux at the expected shock arrival may lead to crossing the SEP event threshold again. The Earth is currently inside a slow (around 400 km/s) solar wind flow with average (around 4 nT) interplanetary magnetic field magnitude. We expect quiet geomagnetic conditions until the arrival (expected later today) of the interplanetary disturbance produced by the halo CME of April 11. The occurrence of a strong geomagnetic storm (K index around 7) will be probable.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 080, sur la base de 13 stations.

Indices solaires pour 12 Apr 2013

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	125
Flux solaire à 10 cm	138
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	005
Ap estimé	004
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	081 - Basé sur 20 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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