Affichage des archives de mercredi, 1 mai 2013

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2013 May 01 1206 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
01 May 2013	160	016
02 May 2013	163	007
03 May 2013	163	007

Bulletin

We expect active conditions (M-class flares likely) to prevail for the next 48 hours. NOAA ARs 1730 and 1731 can still produce an isolated flare of that magnitude. C-class flares are expected from NOAA ARs 1732 and 1734. On May 1st, NOAA AR 1730 produced a C9.6 flare at 01:26 UT (peak time) and a C5.5 flare at 0729 UT (peak time), but no associated CME can be observed. In contrast, a rather wide CME occurred on May 1st around 0248 UT (LASCO C2 observations) on the East limb, but it is a backside event and is not geoeffective. Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly quiet within the next 48 hours, with isolated periods of active conditions. Current conditions are unsettled to active at planetary level (Kp=4) and at local level (K=4 at Dourbes between 06 and 09 UT). ACE data show, during the last 18 hours, a smooth decrease of the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field down to -10 nT, with stronger variations between 0 and -10 nT from 06 UT onward. The source of this activity is not clear at the moment.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 098, sur la base de 17 stations.

Indices solaires pour 30 Apr 2013

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	///
Flux solaire à 10 cm	154
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	010
Ap estimé	009
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	105 - Basé sur 25 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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