Affichage des archives de mardi, 14 mai 2013

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2013 May 14 1301 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

Major flares expected (X-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
14 May 2013	150	007
15 May 2013	153	015
16 May 2013	156	007

Bulletin

NOAA AR 1748 rotated into view, it is still not possible to infer its magnetic configuration but it is a big region with mixed magnetic polarities. It produced two X-class flares in past 24h and can produce more. The first one was an X2.8 with peak at 16:05 UT on May 13, the second one an X3.2 at 01:11 UT today. Both were related to radio bursts and fast limb CMEs. The first CME has a speed of 1500 km/s in the LASCO C3 field of view (decelerated with respect to the 1800 km/s seen in C2), while the second one was travelling at 1900 km/s in LASCO C3 (accelerated from the 1600 km/s measured in C2). Due to the source region location right at the limb, we expect at most a shock arriving to the Earth early on May 15 (09:00 UT for the first one and 13:00 UT for the second one). There is also a CME from May 12 expected to arrive around the same time as the first CME from yesterday. The second X flare and corresponding CME produced also a rise on the proton flux, which is still below the threshold and seems stable for the moment. NOAA AR 1745 has also potential for M flares. High solar activity is expected for the next 48h. Geomagnetic conditions are currently quiet. The possible arrival of a shock from the two halo CMEs and a mild fast speed stream from a coronal hole may increase conditions to active and possible minor storm levels in the next 48h.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 106, sur la base de 14 stations.

Indices solaires pour 13 May 2013

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	147
Flux solaire à 10 cm	150
AK Chambon La Forêt	007
AK Wingst	006
Ap estimé	005
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	097 - Basé sur 15 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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