Affichage des archives de samedi, 18 mai 2013

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2013 May 18 1303 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
18 May 2013	136	014
19 May 2013	135	025
20 May 2013	134	010

Bulletin

Solar activity has been low, NOAA AR 1748 produced a C6.0 flare with peak at 03:45 UT. This remains the most active region, although it is decreasing in complexity, and may lose its delta configuration soon. M-class flares can be expected, and X-class flares remain possible. Proton levels are decreasing, but are still slightly over the threshold for 10 MeV. A shock arrived to the Earth at 00:30 UT, it corresponds to the CME from May 15. It arrived later than expected, which can happen for glancing blow events. A short sheath was seen right after the shock. A solar wind speed of 450 km/s and Bz up to -15 nT caused Kp = 5, between 00:00 UT and 06:00UT, while the local Dourbes K value went up to 4. The CME from May 17 is expected to arrive around noon on May 19 and cause up to major geomagnetic storms.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 088, sur la base de 08 stations.

Indices solaires pour 17 May 2013

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	200
Flux solaire à 10 cm	136
AK Chambon La Forêt	030
AK Wingst	012
Ap estimé	012
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	122 - Basé sur 14 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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