Affichage des archives de dimanche, 18 août 2013

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2013 Aug 18 1225 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
18 Aug 2013	123	007
19 Aug 2013	120	007
20 Aug 2013	120	012

Bulletin

NOAA AR 1818 produced a complex eruptive event on August 17, resulting in two M flares within one hour: a M3.3 peaking at 1824 UT and a M1.4 peaking at 1933 UT. This complex event was associated with a fast CME (~1000 km/s as seen from COR2 A). The bulk of the CME appears to go essentially westwards, with respect to the Earth, but we might cross the eastern flank of this CME on the second half of August 20. The 10 MeV proton flux rose slightly but didn't reach the event threshold. Flaring activity is expected to remain at eruptive levels for the next 48 hours, with C class flares likely from NOAA ARs 1818 and 1824, and a slight risk of an isolated M class flare from AR 1818. We expect essentially quiet geomagnetic conditions for the next 48 hours. There is a small chance of periods of enhanced activity (unsettled to active) on the second half of August 20, due to the CME of August 17.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 074, sur la base de 10 stations.

Indices solaires pour 17 Aug 2013

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	///
Flux solaire à 10 cm	125
AK Chambon La Forêt	011
AK Wingst	008
Ap estimé	008
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	071 - Basé sur 18 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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