Affichage des archives de mercredi, 16 octobre 2013

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2013 Oct 16 1306 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
16 Oct 2013	125	012
17 Oct 2013	125	010
18 Oct 2013	124	007

Bulletin

Solar activity has been moderate, many C-class flares were detected from AR 1865, 1861. NOAA AR 1865 produced an M1.3 flare with peak time at 23:36 UT on October 15, no CME was associated with this flare. More M-class flares can be expected from these two active regions. The CME associated with the M1.8 flare from yesterday peaking at 08:38 UT is not expected to arrive to the Earth. Geomagnetic conditions have ranged from quiet to unsettled due to the fast speed stream from a coronal hole. The solar wind speed is currently at 480 km/s and the magnetic field intensity around 4 nT. We expect quiet conditions, except for the possible arrival (estimated probability of 30%) of the CME from October 13 that could raise the geomagnetic conditions up to storm levels late today.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 092, sur la base de 09 stations.

Indices solaires pour 15 Oct 2013

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	183
Flux solaire à 10 cm	125
AK Chambon La Forêt	022
AK Wingst	021
Ap estimé	020
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	103 - Basé sur 16 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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