Affichage des archives de mardi, 17 décembre 2013

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2013 Dec 17 1229 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
17 Dec 2013	152	006
18 Dec 2013	150	005
19 Dec 2013	150	011

Bulletin

The strongest solar flare was a C3.1 long-duration flare peaking on December 16 at 21h33 UTC originating from new active region NOAA AR 1927, located at the west limb. The flare was associated with a CME, observed in LASCO/C2 (first measurement on December 16 at 21h27 UTC) and STEREO A coronagraphic data (at 21h39 UTC). The CME is travelling to the west with an estimated speed of 650 km/s (estimated via Stereo CAT), with possible arrival of a glancing blow late December 19 (UTC time). The probability for C-flares is around 70%, M-flares around 30%, with NOAA ARs 1917 and 1927 as main source candidates. The chances for an X-flare are low. The proton flux measured by GOES, is below threshold levels. We are currently inside a slow solar wind stream with a solar wind speed of 400 km/s, as observed by ACE. The interplanetary magnetic field currently is weak with a maximum magnitude of 5 nT. Geomagnetic conditions are quiet (K<3) to unsettled (K=3) and are expected to remain so for the next 48 hours.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 088, sur la base de 07 stations.

Indices solaires pour 16 Dec 2013

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	///
Flux solaire à 10 cm	154
AK Chambon La Forêt	009
AK Wingst	006
Ap estimé	006
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	080 - Basé sur 18 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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