Affichage des archives de vendredi, 27 décembre 2013

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2013 Dec 27 1242 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
27 Dec 2013	125	003
28 Dec 2013	130	007
29 Dec 2013	133	007

Bulletin

There were four C flares on the Sun during the past 24 hours. The brightest one was a C4.4 flare peaking at 12:13 UT on December 27, for which the source region is still unknown at this moment. Since AR 11934 and 11936 are showing fast flux emergence, the probability for C flares over the next 48 hours is high (around 75%) and for M flares around 25%. The > 10 MeV proton flux as observed by GOES13 has stabilized around 2 pfu and is not expected to exceed the threshold level of 10 pfu in the next 48 hours. STEREO COR2 B observed a full halo CME at 3:12 UT on December 26, which was detected as a partial halo CME on LASCO C2 by CACTUS. This CME is related to a backsided event. Another CME was observed by LASCO C2 at 7:36 UT on December 26 and by STEREO COR2 A at 7:54 UT. This CME is probably related to the C2.2 flare released by AR 11931 which peaked at 7:02 UT. There is a slight chance that this CME will deliver a glancing blow in the first half of December 30. Around 3h UT on December 27, the solar wind speed as observed by ACE increased quickly from about 265 to about 310 km/s. Over the past 24 hours, the magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field has increased from about 3 to about 7 nT. These observations may be the effect of a weak coronal hole high speed stream arriving at Earth. Geomagnetic activity has been quiet over the past 24 hours (K Dourbes between 0 and 2; NOAA Kp between 1 and 2). Quiet geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes < 4) are expected on December 27, 28, and 29.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 075, sur la base de 07 stations.

Indices solaires pour 26 Dec 2013

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	///
Flux solaire à 10 cm	125
AK Chambon La Forêt	003
AK Wingst	002
Ap estimé	001
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	068 - Basé sur 18 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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