Affichage des archives de jeudi, 9 janvier 2014

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2014 Jan 09 1253 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Severe magstorm expected (A>=100 or K>=7)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
09 Jan 2014	170	073
10 Jan 2014	160	075
11 Jan 2014	160	031

Bulletin

Three C flares occurred since our last bulletin. Two flares originated from NOAA AR 1944 (Catania sunspot group 98) and one from NOAA AR 1946 (Catania sunspot group 97). NOAA AR 1944 showed signs of decay in size, but is still strongly connected to neighbouring regions NOAA AR 1946 and 1943. More flaring activity is possible from these regions within the next 48 hours. Chances for C flares are 70%, for M flares 50% and X flares 20%. Two coronal holes are currently located at the central meridian, one between -15 and +20 degrees latitude and one between 25 and 60 degrees latitude. A high speed stream might be reaching the Earth from late January 10 and early January 11 (UTC time) on. No additional Earth directed CMEs were detected. The proton flux is still very high for >10MeV protons, but decreasing. It reached a maximum value of around 1000 sfu and now has a value near 300 sfu. The proton event is expected to continue for the next few hours. The proton flux for >50 and >100MeV protons is currently below the event threshold. Proton fluxes might rise again in case of major flares. Solar wind measurements show no signs of the expected arrival yet of the CME of January 9. Solar wind speed has risen to a maximum near 500 km/s and currently has a value of 400 km/s. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field is fluctuating between 0 and 9 nT. The Bz- component achieves values in the ranges from -8 to +6 nT. Minor to severe storm (K=5 to 8) conditions are expected, due to arrival of the CME of January 7. Aurorae might be seen at higher latitudes on January 9 until the noon of January 10 under clear sky conditions. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to stay near K=4 to 5 due to the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream on January 11.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 074, sur la base de 09 stations.

Indices solaires pour 08 Jan 2014

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	117
Flux solaire à 10 cm	195
AK Chambon La Forêt	013
AK Wingst	007
Ap estimé	007
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	082 - Basé sur 17 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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