Affichage des archives de dimanche, 12 janvier 2014

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2014 Jan 12 1245 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
12 Jan 2014	160	016
13 Jan 2014	150	012
14 Jan 2014	150	004

Bulletin

In total 8 C flares occurred during the past 24 hours. A C6.5 and C6.0 flare were the strongest events. Both erupted from Catania sunspot group 98 (NOAA AR 1944). Also Catania sunspot group 9 (NOAA AR 1950) was responsible for two C flares. More C flares are expected within the next 48 hours with a chance of 90%. Chances for M flares are estimated at 40% and for X flares at 10%. We issue a warning condition for a proton event, due to position of NOAA AR 1944 which is rotating towards the west limb. No geo-effective CMEs were observed. The solar wind, measured by ACE, showed signatures of the arrival of the coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind speed increased from about 400 km/s to 500 km/s. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field reached a maximum of 9 nT and the Bz component varied between +8 and -8 nT. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled. Quiet to active conditions are expected during the next 24 hours.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 098, sur la base de 18 stations.

Indices solaires pour 11 Jan 2014

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	///
Flux solaire à 10 cm	166
AK Chambon La Forêt	009
AK Wingst	004
Ap estimé	004
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	102 - Basé sur 21 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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