Affichage des archives de jeudi, 6 février 2014

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2014 Feb 06 1237 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
06 Feb 2014	197	005
07 Feb 2014	200	013
08 Feb 2014	196	009

Bulletin

Catania sunspot group 28 (NOAA AR 1967) is showing signs of decay, although it still maintains the beta-gamma-delta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. It produced the strongest flare of the past 24 hours, the M1.3 flare peaking yesterday at 16:20 UT. No CME was associated with this flare. The area of Catania sunspot group 27 (NOAA AR 1968) is growing, but this group maintains the beta-gamma configuration of its photospheric magnetic field and produces only C-class flares. We expect further flaring activity on the C- and M-level in these two groups, with an X-class flare being possible but unlikely. A CME associated with a flare in these active regions may still arrive at the Earth. Due to position of these groups in the western hemisphere, a major CME in one of them may lead to a proton event, so we maintain the warning condition. The Earth is currently inside a slow (around 400 km/s) solar wind flow with elevated (7-8 nT) interplanetary magnetic field magnitude. Due to low solar wind speed, we expect quiet geomagnetic conditions in the coming hours. Late on February 7 we expect the arrival of the fast flow from an extended solar coronal hole (currently stretched across the solar central meridian), resulting in a geomagnetic disturbance up to active (K = 4) level.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 112, sur la base de 12 stations.

Indices solaires pour 05 Feb 2014

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	///
Flux solaire à 10 cm	194
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	004
Ap estimé	004
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	124 - Basé sur 22 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

<< Aller à l'aperçu quotidien