Affichage des archives de mardi, 18 février 2014

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2014 Feb 18 1324 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
18 Feb 2014	152	007
19 Feb 2014	153	007
20 Feb 2014	155	008

Bulletin

Flaring activity has been in the C-class level in past 24h. NOAA AR 1976 produced the strongest one, a C4.7 flare with peak at 01:33 UT. The complex formed by NOAA ARs 1976, 1977 and 1980 continues to produce C-class flares. NOAA AR 1974 is rotating over the west limb, but has still potential to produce M-class flares. Therefore the warning condition for energetic protons is maintained. A full halo CME erupted at 01:25 UT (first seen by LASCO-C2) as a consequence of a filament eruption in the southeast of the visible solar disc. The bulk of the CME is directed to the southeast, but it can reach the Earth. The calculated speed is 663 km/s, giving an arrival time of February 20, at 20:00 UT (with a ~12h error margin). Geomagnetic conditions are quiet and expected to remain so. There is still a small possibility that the CME from February 13 arrives to the Earth and cause unsettled to active conditions.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 093, sur la base de 07 stations.

Indices solaires pour 17 Feb 2014

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	131
Flux solaire à 10 cm	152
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	006
Ap estimé	005
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	078 - Basé sur 14 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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