Affichage des archives de vendredi, 9 mai 2014

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2014 May 09 1229 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
09 May 2014	147	007
10 May 2014	147	011
11 May 2014	147	011

Bulletin

Solar activity has been low for the past 24 hours, with only a couple of low level C flares originating from the regions in the eastern hemisphere. Catania group 43 (NOAA AR 2056) (which produced the M5.3 flare yesterday) only produced a single C1.4 flare. The other low level C flares were from new group 46 (NOAA AR 2058) with the largest one a C3.3 flare peaking at 8:19 UT. Some further C flares are to be expected in the coming days with the chance for an M flare increasing. An asymmetric halo CME was visible in LASCO C2 coronagraph data from 2:48 UT onwards (it was not detected by CACTus as it incorrectly identified it as 3 separate CME's). The mass was expelled predominantly to the west from the Sun Earth line. No on disc activity could be associated. In SDO/AIA 304 the ejecta can be seen to originate from the western limb at latitudes corresponding to NOAA AR 2047 which has already turned around the west limb. Together with STEREO data this confirms that the CME is backsided and will not be geoeffective. Solar wind speed has been in the 350 km/s to 400 km/s range. Up to 10nT total magnetic field strengths persisted in the first 12 hours but have now slowly decreased to about 6nT. During that first period of increased total magnetic field, Bz was predominantly negative with periods of up to -9nT. It was later more variable, roughly within the -6nT to 6nT range. Unsettled to active conditions have continued over the first halve of the past 24 hours (NOAA Kp=4 and local K Dourbes =3), but have eased to quiet to unsettled later on. Quiet to unsettled conditions are first expected to continue but unsettled (and possibly active) conditions may accompany the influence of a coronal hole high speed stream later on.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 096, sur la base de 13 stations.

Indices solaires pour 08 May 2014

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	142
Flux solaire à 10 cm	148
AK Chambon La Forêt	025
AK Wingst	021
Ap estimé	022
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	089 - Basé sur 17 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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