Affichage des archives de dimanche, 15 juin 2014

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2014 Jun 15 1436 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
15 Jun 2014	148	008
16 Jun 2014	145	005
17 Jun 2014	142	007

Bulletin

Several C-class and two M-class flares were reported in last 24 hours. The strongest one was the impulsive M1.4 flare which peaked at 19:29 UT on June 14. The flare originated from the active region just behind the east solar limb and was associated with the type II radio burst (indicating the shock wave speed of about 400 km/s). The associated CME was first seen in the SOHO/LASCO C2 field of view at 19:48 UT and had projected plane of the sky speed of about 600 km/s. The angular width of the CME was about 100 degrees and the bulk of the CME mass was directed south-east from the Sun- Earth line, therefore we do not expect this CME to arrive at the Earth. The C9.0 flare (peaked at 20:17 UT) on June 13 which originated from the Catania sunspot group 81 (NOAA AR 2087) was associated with narrow CME first seen in the SOHO/LASCO C2 field of view at 20:36 UT. We expect C-class and possibly also M-class flares in the coming hours. The solar wind speed is still about 400 km/s, and the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude has presently value of about 5 nT. Late today we expect the arrival of the glancing blow from the CME-driven shock wave, associated with a partial halo CME from June 12. The arrival of the fast flow associated with the small low latitude coronal hole (between S20 and S40) which reached the central meridian late on June 12, might be expected early tomorrow (June 16). Arrival of both, CME-driven shock wave and the fast flow is possible but not very probable. The geomagnetic conditions are quiet and expect to remain so in the coming hours.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 056, sur la base de 13 stations.

Indices solaires pour 14 Jun 2014

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	///
Flux solaire à 10 cm	153
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	010
Ap estimé	008
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	097 - Basé sur 18 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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