Affichage des archives de vendredi, 14 novembre 2014

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2014 Nov 14 1254 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
14 Nov 2014	155	010
15 Nov 2014	160	011
16 Nov 2014	163	013

Bulletin

The solar activity is still low with only few C-class flares reported during the last 24 hours. The strongest reported flare was C 5.4 flare (peaking at 07:48 UT) this morning. There was no Earth-directed CMEs observed during last 24 hours. We expect C-class flares and possibly also M-class flares in particular from the NOAA AR 2209. Due to the current, close-to-the-west-limb position of the NOAA AR 2205, a major eruption from this active region may lead to a proton event, so we maintain the warning conditions for a proton event. The solar wind speed is currently about 580 km/s, and the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude is slightly elevated and it amounts about 10 nT. Today's ACE solar wind data indicate possible arrival of the sector boundary, which might be followed with the expected arrival of the fast flow (from the extended low latitude coronal hole which reached the central meridian yesterday morning) on the November 15 or early in the November 16. The situation will be more clear as more data will arrive in the coming hours. The geomagnetic conditions are quiet to unsettled and expected to remain so in the coming hours. However, the expected arrival of the fast solar wind on November 15 or early in November 16 might induce unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 083, sur la base de 10 stations.

Indices solaires pour 13 Nov 2014

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	///
Flux solaire à 10 cm	154
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	004
Ap estimé	004
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	085 - Basé sur 15 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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