Affichage des archives de jeudi, 29 janvier 2015

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2015 Jan 29 1231 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
29 Jan 2015	165	008
30 Jan 2015	170	018
31 Jan 2015	173	015

Bulletin

NOAA 2268 and NOAA 2277 dominated the flaring activity, producing a total of 11 C- and 2 M-class flares over the period. The strongest flare was an M2.1 flare peaking at 11:42UT. Further data and imagery are required to assess any related CME. NOAA 2277 also produced an M-class event: the impulsive M1.0 flare peaked at 21:37UT. No earth-directed CMEs have been observed. Both NOAA 2268 and NOAA 2277 show mixed magnetic polarities. The x-ray background flux was mostly above the C1-level. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is enhanced, probably in response to the M1.4 flare from 28 January. With a maximum of 0.7 pfu, it stayed well below the proton event threshold. Further M-class flaring is expected. Solar wind speed started the period varying between 420 and 450 km/s, but gradually declined towards values between 360 and 400 km/s. Bz was initially very close to 0 nT, but varied between +4 and -5 nT by the end of the period. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet. Further disturbances in the the solar wind are possible from other CH HSS and a possible glancing blow on 30 January from the 24 January CME. The extension of a southern polar CH is currently at the CM and is expected to influence the geomagnetic field around 01 February. The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to active conditions.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 112, sur la base de 09 stations.

Indices solaires pour 28 Jan 2015

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	///
Flux solaire à 10 cm	159
AK Chambon La Forêt	012
AK Wingst	008
Ap estimé	007
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	106 - Basé sur 13 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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