Affichage des archives de mercredi, 4 février 2015

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2015 Feb 04 1231 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
04 Feb 2015	149	007
05 Feb 2015	149	007
06 Feb 2015	149	007

Bulletin

Solar activity was moderate with NOAA AR 2277 (Catania 78, 79) producing an M1.2 flare peaking at 02:15UT. Apart from that, only some minor C flares were detected, mostly from NOAA 2277 (Catania 78, 79), but also from Catania 82 (NOAA 2280). NOAA region 2277 continues to carry opposite polarity field is its intermediate region. A new region rotated onto disc in the northern hemisphere and is numbered NOAA 2281. We expect C flaring for the coming days, especially from NOAA region 2277 with also a chance for an M flare. There is a slight chance for a proton event should 2277 produce significant flaring. A filament eruption occurred at 10N35E at 12:00 UT February 3. The associated CME was directed northeast and narrow. SoHA LASCO C2 showed two westbound CME's respectively souhwest from 3:12 UT onwards and northwest from 5:24 onwards. Both are judged to be originating from on or behind the west limb. No Earth directed CMEs were recorded. Solar wind conditions have been recovering from the influence of a high speed stream. solar wind speed has dropped continuously from around 580 km/s to about 470 km/s. Total magnetic field was roughly in the 2.5 to 4 nT range. with Bz variable but predominantly negative. The geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp and local K Dourbes 2-3). A further decrease to nominal solar wind conditions is expected with associated and quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions over the next days.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 074, sur la base de 14 stations.

Indices solaires pour 03 Feb 2015

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	123
Flux solaire à 10 cm	149
AK Chambon La Forêt	017
AK Wingst	017
Ap estimé	017
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	062 - Basé sur 17 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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