Affichage des archives de mardi, 10 mars 2015

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2015 Mar 10 1232 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
10 Mar 2015	122	015
11 Mar 2015	120	018
12 Mar 2015	118	019

Bulletin

Over the past 24 hours there were several C class flares and 3 M class flares, all were produced by NOAA AR (Active Region) 2297, which is located at S15E40, and is classified as a Beta-Delta region under the Mount Wilson magnetic classification system. The largest flares recorded over the past 24 hours, all produced by AR 2297, were a M4.5 flare on 2015-Mar-09 peaking at 14:33, a M5.8 flare on 2015-Mar-09 peaking at 23:53 and a M5.1 on 2015-Mar-10 peaking at 03:24. AR 2297 has shown some evolution with some flux emergence. There is a large filament located between S05W50 and S30E70, however this has remained, and appears, stable. AR 2297 produced continual out flows throughout the past 24 hours and several small CMEs (Coronal Mass Ejection) directed to the East. AR 2297 produced two Earth directed partial-halo CMEs, see below for details. Flaring is expected to continue at the C-class level with a strong possibility of M-class flares. The solar wind speed has been slowly decreasing over the past 24 hours from 450 km/s to 350 km/s. The total magnetic field has increased from around 3 nT to 6nT, and the Bz component has fluctuated from positive to negative. The Bz has ranged between +6 and -5 nT over the past 24 hours. Geomagnetic conditions ranged between Kp index 1-2 (NOAA) and local K index 1-2 (Dourbes; Nb. data gap) over the past 24 hours. A transient coronal hole is currently located at solar disk center, this may produce enhanced solar wind speeds in a couple of days. AR 2297 produced two partial halo CMEs; 1. A partial halo CME was observed in LASCO/C2 images at 00:00UT on 10-Mar-2015. This CME was related to the strong M5.8 flare produced by NOAA 2297 peaking at 23:53UT (09-Mar-2015). The related CME had a plane of the sky speed of 638 km/s (as recorded by CACTUS the Computer Aided CME Tracking tool), and a width of 188 degrees. The bulk of the CME is directed to the NorthEast. The CME is estimated to arrive at Earth at 00:30UT (+/- 12 hours) on 12-Mar-2015, and may impact the geomagnetic field; 2. A partial halo CME was observed in LASCO/C2 images at 03:36UT on 10-Mar-2015. This CME was related to the strong M5.1 flare produced by NOAA AR 2297 peaking at 03:24UT. The related CME had a plane of the sky speed of approximately 1150 km/s, and a width of 220 degrees. The bulk of the CME is directed to the NorthEast. The CME is estimated to arrive at Earth at 20:00UT (+/- 12 hours) on 11-Mar-2015, and may impact the geomagnetic field.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 022, sur la base de 18 stations.

Indices solaires pour 09 Mar 2015

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	///
Flux solaire à 10 cm	123
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	008
Ap estimé	006
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	019 - Basé sur 18 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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