Affichage des archives de jeudi, 19 mars 2015

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2015 Mar 19 1229 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
19 Mar 2015	115	028
20 Mar 2015	113	026
21 Mar 2015	111	010

Bulletin

Solar activity was low with the strongest flare of the period remaining restricted to a C7.6 flare peaking at 16:31 from NOAA region 2297. Multiple other C class flares were observed from regions 2297 and 2302. A new region emerged near N16W17 while NOAA region 2297 showed some further decay. Flaring at C level is expected with a chance for M flares remaining but diminishing. There also remains a chance for a proton event in case of strong activity from region 2297 but this chance is also diminishing as the region further rotates towards and beyond the west limb over the next days. No Earth directed CMEs were observed. Following the decline of CME effects of the March 15 CME, solar wind conditions now appear to be under the influence of a high speed stream from the southern negative polarity coronal hole. Solar wind speed saw first an increase from around 560 km/s to a peak of over 760 km/s at 21:25UT, followed by a steady decline back to values around 560 km/s. The total magnetic field continued to decrease further during the period, from around 11 nT down to values of 4 nT after midnight. Since then, a slight increase back to current values approaching 8 nT was seen. Bz was variable with some negative peaks down to -10nT at the start of the period. The magnetic field phi angle was stable in the negative sector. The high speed stream influence is likely to persist but decline over the next 24-48 hours. Minor geomagnetic storm conditions dominated the first half of the period with even a moderate storm episode at planetary level (NOAA Kp 5-6, local K Dourbes 3-5). Current conditions are unsettled to active (NOAA Kp=4, K Dourbes 3-4) and likely to persist, with minor storm conditions possible.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 039, sur la base de 11 stations.

Indices solaires pour 18 Mar 2015

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	///
Flux solaire à 10 cm	115
AK Chambon La Forêt	059
AK Wingst	045
Ap estimé	049
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	032 - Basé sur 17 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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