Affichage des archives de samedi, 4 juillet 2015

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2015 Jul 04 1230 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
04 Jul 2015	112	004
05 Jul 2015	111	003
06 Jul 2015	111	003

Bulletin

Active Region (AR) 2378 produced two C-class flares and one M-class flare over the past 24 hours. All other ARs have been relatively quiet. AR 2378 has produced the largest flare, a M1.5 class flare, peaking at 12:51 UT on 2015-Jul-03. There is little evidence of a CME associated with the flare. There are some flows / small eruptions emerging from beyond the north-east solar limb, and when the source region rotates into view we may see an increase in activity. The proton numbers have continued to be low and have not exceeded ~1 pfu at the Earth in the past 24 hours. Solar activity may fluctuate in the coming days with AR 2378 appearing quite active.

The solar wind speed has been steadily rising over the past 24 hours, from approx. 320 to 350 km / s. The density has also been slowly rising. The total magnetic field has been slowly increasing from approx. 4 nT to 8 nT, and the Bz component has been around 0 nT with some fluctuations in the past 24 hours, and has dropped as low as -8 nT. A drop in the field and small increases in velocity may cause a small increase in geomagnetic field activity. Geomagnetic conditions ranged between Kp index 0-2 (NOAA) and local K index (Dourbes) 0-3 over the past 24 hours, similar conditions are expected to persist. There is one transient coronal hole currently located in the South, which may enhance solar wind speeds at the Earth in a couple of days.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 107, sur la base de 21 stations.

Indices solaires pour 03 Jul 2015

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	///
Flux solaire à 10 cm	112
AK Chambon La Forêt	006
AK Wingst	///
Ap estimé	004
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	093 - Basé sur 32 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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