Affichage des archives de samedi, 11 juillet 2015

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2015 Jul 11 1231 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
11 Jul 2015	125	021
12 Jul 2015	122	018
13 Jul 2015	120	009

Bulletin

NOAA 2385 (Catania 11) produced the only flare of the period: a C1 flare peaking at 16:13UT. The other sunspot regions were quiet. No obvious Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CME) were observed. A 90 degrees wide CME first observed by LASCO/C2 at 16:24UT was the result of longlasting filamentary activity at and beyond the northwest solar limb. The bulk of the ejected material was directed well north of the ecliptic and away from Earth.

There remains a chance on an isolated C-class flare.

Initially, solar wind speed was stable around 350 km/s. A gradual increase started around 20:00UT, under the influence of the co-rotating interaction region (CIR). Current solar wind speeds seem slightly in decline from the maximum values near 640 km/s around 10:00UT. A sharp drop in particle density was observed shortly before 23:00UT, from an average of about 50-60 per cm3 to 4-7 per cm3. The direction of the interplanetary magnetic field turned away from the Sun between 22:00-23:00UT. Both are consistent with the proper arrival of the high speed stream (HSS) from the equatorial coronal hole. Bz fluctuated between -14 and +14 nT, but has been varying between much smaller values since 07:00UT (mostly between -6 and +6 nT).

As expected, active geomagnetic conditions were observed in Dourbes under the effects of the CIR and HSS. Globally, the NOAA Kp reached minor storming conditions during the 21:00-24:00 and 03:00-06:00 periods. Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions are expected to persist, with a minor storming episode not excluded.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 096, sur la base de 18 stations.

Indices solaires pour 10 Jul 2015

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	118
Flux solaire à 10 cm	129
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	011
Ap estimé	011
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	118 - Basé sur 30 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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