Affichage des archives de samedi, 15 août 2015

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2015 Aug 15 1348 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
15 Aug 2015	091	021
16 Aug 2015	089	010
17 Aug 2015	087	008

Bulletin

The only C-class flare reported in the last 24 hours is C1.6 flare, peaking at 12:36 UT today. The flare originated from the NOAA 2401 and was associated with coronal dimming which indicates that there was probably also CME associated with the event. The situation will be clearer as more data will become available in the coming hours. We expect occasional C-class flares in the coming hours.

The partial halo CME, first seen in the SOHO LASCO C2 field of view at 09:36 UT on August 14, was associated with the filament eruption from the south-west quadrant. The CME had the angular width of about 190 degrees and the projected plane of the sky speed of about 300 km/s (as reported by CACTUS software package). The bulk of the CME mass was directed southward of the Sun-Earth line and it is therefore not very probable that this CME will arrive at the Earth. The possible arrival of a CME-driven shock wave might be expected late on August 19 or early morning of August 20 producing at most unsettled geomagnetic conditions.

At 07:30 UT this morning ACE data recorded shock arrival associated with the partial halo CME from August 12. The solar wind speed jumped from 320 to 450 km/s, and the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude reached the value of 28nT. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field had longer interval with the value down to -20nT. This strong southward field produced geomagnetic storm, NOAA reported Kp=7 and Izmiran and Dourbes reported K=5. Currently the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude is about 15nT with the Bz component fluctuating around -10nT. The solar wind speed is about 450 km/s. We expect possibly active geomagnetic conditions in the coming hours.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 035, sur la base de 14 stations.

Indices solaires pour 14 Aug 2015

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	///
Flux solaire à 10 cm	093
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	004
Ap estimé	003
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	042 - Basé sur 27 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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