Affichage des archives de mardi, 29 septembre 2015
Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC
Publié: 2015 Sep 29 1231 UTC
Prévisions SIDC
Éruptions solaires
M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)
Géomagnétisme
Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
Moniteur de Flux de Proton
Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)
| Flux de 10 cm | Ap | |
|---|---|---|
| 29 Sep 2015 | 120 | 010 |
| 30 Sep 2015 | 115 | 006 |
| 01 Oct 2015 | 105 | 007 |
Bulletin
Six active regions were identified on the solar disk today. Once more NOAA active regions (AR) 2422 and 2423 were the main players, producing nine M-class flares and several C-class flares. The largest one was a M7.6 flare, peaking at 14:58 UT. The flares were either impulsive or the accompanying CME was too weak and without an Earth-directed component to be of any influence for the Earth. NOAA 2422 has stretched in the E-W direction but has stopped growing in sunspot area. The region still is a beta-gamma-delta region. The evolution of NOAA 2423 is difficult to follow, but it still produced some flares. Additional M-class flares are expected, with 30% probability for an X-class flares. Due to the position of NOAA AR 2423, we retain the warning level for a potential proton event.
The Earth is still inside a slow (values between 340 and 380 km/s) solar wind flow and the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude remains around 5 nT. The geomagnetic conditions are quiet (K<3) to unsettled (K=3) and are expected to remain so.
Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 111, sur la base de 14 stations.Indices solaires pour 28 Sep 2015
| Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania | /// |
| Flux solaire à 10 cm | 124 |
| AK Chambon La Forêt | 013 |
| AK Wingst | 004 |
| Ap estimé | 003 |
| Nombre international de taches solaires estimé | 146 - Basé sur 26 stations |
Résumé des événements marquants
| Jour | Commencer | Max | Fin | Loc | Force | OP | 10cm | Catania/NOAA | Types de sursaut radio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 1301 | 1318 | 1329 | S22W24 | M1.1 | 1N | 39/2422 | ||
| 28 | 1453 | 1458 | 1503 | ---- | M7.6 | 100 | 39/2422 | ||
| 29 | 0311 | 0316 | 0331 | S08W78 | M1.2 | SF | 36/2423 | ||
| 29 | 0341 | 0343 | 0353 | S20W36 | M1.1 | SF | 39/2422 | ||
| 29 | 0505 | 0516 | 0523 | S21W37 | M2.9 | SF | 39/2422 | ||
| 29 | 0533 | 0537 | 0539 | S09W82 | M1.2 | SF | 36/2423 | ||
| 29 | 0553 | 0556 | 0604 | ---- | M1.0 | 39/2422 | |||
| 29 | 0639 | 0643 | 0646 | S20W34 | M1.4 | 1N | 39/2422 | ||
| 29 | 0846 | 0851 | 0855 | S10W77 | M1.3 | 1N | 36/2423 | ||
| 29 | 1109 | 1115 | 1120 | S10W79 | M1.6 | SF | 39/2422 |
Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive
Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC
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