Affichage des archives de samedi, 3 octobre 2015

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2015 Oct 03 1230 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
03 Oct 2015	101	017
04 Oct 2015	095	043
05 Oct 2015	092	026

Bulletin

Solar activity was moderate and remained dominated by NOAA AR 2422 which produced 2 M1 flares (peaking at 12:26UT and 17:18UT respectively) as well as several C flares. In the second half of the reporting period flaring remained at C level with also AR 2427 contributing this morning. Although M-flaring from region 2422 remains quite possible, the region seemed to be in decay, and as it is departing the West limb, we expect flaring to remain at C level. A rather long filament stretching across the NorthEastern quadrant lifted off from 16:00 UT onwards (as clearly observed in SDO/AIA 304). Currently available coronagraph images only show an associated weak and narrow ejection directed in North-Eastern direction. No other significant CME's were recorded. Solar wind speed became slightly elevated reaching a peak of 450 km/s and is now around 390 km/s. Total magnetic field also remained enhanced and is currently at around 11 nT, with Bz reaching a negative peak of -6.7nT around 5:30UT and afterwards gently decaying and turning northward. The phi angle was stable in the positive sector. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (local K Dourbes 2-3) with an isolated active period at planetary level (NOAA Kp 2-4). Solar wind is expected to remain slightly enhanced and expected to see further enhancement by a glancing CME arrival of the September 30 events later tomorrow. Geomagnetic conditions could thus rise to active or minor storm conditions.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 047, sur la base de 09 stations.

Indices solaires pour 02 Oct 2015

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	///
Flux solaire à 10 cm	107
AK Chambon La Forêt	019
AK Wingst	014
Ap estimé	014
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	057 - Basé sur 29 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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