Affichage des archives de mercredi, 14 octobre 2015

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2015 Oct 14 1249 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
14 Oct 2015	098	021
15 Oct 2015	101	026
16 Oct 2015	104	034

Bulletin

Two C-class flares were recorded during the period, the strongest flare being an impulsive C9.5 flare from NOAA 2434, peaking at 14:11UT. Flaring activity then stalled, with no C-class flares observed since 15:00UT (13 October). NOAA 2434 is magnetically complex and displays a very bright trailing portion (in EUV), with only a few small sunspots. The other sunspot groups currently visible on the solar disk are quiet. No earth- directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been observed.

C-class flares are expected, with a chance on an isolated M-class flare from NOAA 2434.

Earth remains under the influence of the high speed wind stream (HSS) from the wide northern coronal hole (CH). Solar wind speed varied mostly between 450 and 550 km/s, while Bz oscillated between -8 and +5 nT, displaying long periods of southward orientation. The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) was mostly directed away from the Sun (positive). Mostly unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions were observed, with Kp reaching minor storm levels during the 00-03UT interval.

Mostly unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions are expected, with a continuing chance on minor geomagnetic storming episodes, in particular on 15-16 October when Earth is likely to pass through the HSS from the eastmost extension of the northern CH.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 056, sur la base de 11 stations.

Indices solaires pour 13 Oct 2015

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	082
Flux solaire à 10 cm	096
AK Chambon La Forêt	035
AK Wingst	027
Ap estimé	026
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	064 - Basé sur 15 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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