Affichage des archives de jeudi, 17 décembre 2015

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2015 Dec 17 1230 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
17 Dec 2015	126	008
18 Dec 2015	126	008
19 Dec 2015	126	027

Bulletin

NOAA AR 2470 produced one C flare in the past 24 hours, a C1.3 flare peaking at 5:33 UT on December 17. C flares are possible within the next 24 hours, with a chance for an M flare. A halo CME was first seen in LASCO C2 images at 9:24 UT on December 16. It is an asymmetric full halo, probably frontside CME with bulk directed towards the ENE. LASCO C2 and C3 imagery provides an average plane-of-sky speed of 552 km/s. This CME is probably associated with the C6.6 flare released by NOAA AR 2468 with peak time 9:03 UT (which showed a dimming and a post eruption arcade as well). Its estimated arrival time at Earth is 4h UT on December 19. Another halo CME was first observed in LASCO C2 images at 14:24 UT on December 16. It is an asymmetric full halo, probably frontside CME with bulk directed towards the SSE. LASCO C2 and C3 imagery provides an average plane-of-sky speed of 489 km/s. It is probably associated to a dual ribbon flaring of a filament channel near NOAA AR 2468 starting around 12:57 UT on December 16. Its estimated arrival time at Earth is 6h UT on December 19. During the past 24 hours, the solar wind speed gradually decreased from about 520 to 370 km/s and then increased again to current values around 460 km/s. The magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field varied between 1 and 7 nT. During the past 24 hours, quiet to unsettled geomagnetic levels were registered (K Dourbes between 0 and 3, NOAA Kp between 0 and 1). Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes < 4) are expected on December 17 and 18. Due to the expected arrival of the December 16 CMEs, active to minor storm conditions (K Dourbes = 4-5) are expected on December 19, with a chance for moderate to major storm conditions (K Dourbes = 6-7).

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 044, sur la base de 08 stations.

Indices solaires pour 16 Dec 2015

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	///
Flux solaire à 10 cm	126
AK Chambon La Forêt	005
AK Wingst	006
Ap estimé	006
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	058 - Basé sur 13 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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