Affichage des archives de samedi, 30 janvier 2016

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2016 Jan 30 1235 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
30 Jan 2016	105	003
31 Jan 2016	103	005
01 Feb 2016	101	008

Bulletin

Over the past 24 hours solar activity has been low. The largest flare was a C2.0 class flare peaking at 21:46 UT. NOAA Active Region (AR) 2488 (Macintosh class:Dao; Mag. type:Beta) has been most active, but has now moved on to the West limb. AR 2490 (Bxo; Beta) has also been active producing several small flares. AR 2488 has shown some evidence of flux emergence and cancellation in HMI observations, but appears stable. This may increase flaring activity. There is currently a large positive Northern polar coronal in the Western hemisphere, but solar wind speeds have remained low, there is a small chance of increased solar wind speeds over the next day. There were a series of small Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) off of the West limb. There were two filament eruptions that occurred close to the West limb, the first at approximately 05:30 UT and the second at 21:10 UT yesterday (29-Jan-2015). Both are not expected to interact with the Earth system. No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected. Solar activity is expected to remain low over the next 24 hours with a high probability of C-class flares and a low probability of M-class flares. The solar wind speed has decreased from around 310 to 270 km/s over the past 24 hours. The total magnetic field strength has slowly decreased from around 5 to 3 nT. The Bz component fluctuated around 0 nT, ranging between -2 and +2 nT. Geomagnetic conditions ranged between Kp index 0-1 (NOAA) and local K index 0-2 (Dourbes) over the past 24 hours. A positive polar coronal hole is currently positioned in the Western hemisphere of the Sun, but the solar wind speed has remained low. Geo-activity is expected to remain low unless the solar wind speed increases.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 033, sur la base de 03 stations.

Indices solaires pour 29 Jan 2016

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	///
Flux solaire à 10 cm	107
AK Chambon La Forêt	006
AK Wingst	003
Ap estimé	002
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	061 - Basé sur 18 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

<< Aller à l'aperçu quotidien