Affichage des archives de vendredi, 12 février 2016

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2016 Feb 12 1238 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
12 Feb 2016	117	016
13 Feb 2016	118	010
14 Feb 2016	119	009

Bulletin

NOAA AR 2497 has increased its magnetic complexity and now has beta-gamma-delta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. It produced 3 C-class flares and an M-class flare in the past 24 hours (two more C-class flares were produced by the NOAA AR 2492). We expect the flaring activity on the M-level from the NOAA AR 2497. The M1.0 flare peaking at 10:47 today was not accompanied by a CME. The C8.9 flare peaking at 21:03 UT on February 11 in the NOAA AR 2497 was accompanied by coronal dimmings, an EIT wave, and a post-eruption arcade observed by SDO/AIA. The associated halo CME (angular width around 270 degrees) first appeared in the SOHO/LASCO C2 field of view at 21:28 UT. Due to the position of the CME source region close to the solar disk center, the CME will most probably arrive at the Earth. The arrival may be expected late on February 14 - early on February 15. A minor to moderate geomagnetic storm (K around 5 to 6) may be expected. The Earth is currently inside an ICME, probably associated with a delayed arrival of the CME observed on the Sun late on February 5 (the solar wind speed is currently rather low, around 350 km/s). The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) magnitude is currently around 14 nT. The IMF north- south component Bz had extended southward intervals, but due to low solar wind speed only active geomagnetic conditions (K = 4) were reported by Dourbes, IZMIRAN, and NOAA. We expect unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions in the coming hours.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 071, sur la base de 14 stations.

Indices solaires pour 11 Feb 2016

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	///
Flux solaire à 10 cm	113
AK Chambon La Forêt	020
AK Wingst	010
Ap estimé	011
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	086 - Basé sur 23 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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