Affichage des archives de mardi, 19 avril 2016

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2016 Apr 19 1230 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
19 Apr 2016	092	017
20 Apr 2016	090	019
21 Apr 2016	089	007

Bulletin

Solar weather conditions were quiet with X-ray flux remaining below C level. Both regions on disk (Catania groups 54 an 59, NOAA Active region 2529 and 2532 respectively) produced only some minor B flares. The biggest and most complex of those regions, Catania group 54, seems to reduce and simplify as it approaches the West limb. While it does so, flaring at C level is quite probable and there remains a chance for an M flare, but both probabilities are expected to further decrease. The proton levels have returned to background levels after yesterdays slight increase in response to the westbound CME. No proton events are expected though they can not be excluded while Catania group 54 approaches the West limb. No Earth directed CME's have been recorded in coronagraph data.

Solar wind conditions were fairly nominal. Solar wind speed was in the 350-400 km/s range with a generally decreasing trend. Total magnetic field strength decreased from 8nT to around 5nT with Bz mainly positive. The magnetic field phi angle was in the positive sector. More than a day into the positive sector there is yet no sign of an expected possible influence of a high speed stream from the northern coronal hole. An increase in solar wind conditions under this influence is still possible but becomes less likely and may be rather weak. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet (local K Dourbes 0-2, NOAA Kp 0-1). Some episodes of active geomagnetic conditions may be possible in the next 24 hours if solar wind conditions become enhanced under the possible influence of the northern coronal hole. Otherwise quiet to unsettled conditions are expected.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 029, sur la base de 20 stations.

Indices solaires pour 18 Apr 2016

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	044
Flux solaire à 10 cm	095
AK Chambon La Forêt	006
AK Wingst	005
Ap estimé	004
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	032 - Basé sur 33 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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