Affichage des archives de mardi, 11 octobre 2016

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2016 Oct 11 1237 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Géomagnétisme

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
11 Oct 2016	103	006
12 Oct 2016	103	007
13 Oct 2016	103	007

Bulletin

Quiet solar conditions were recorded with X-ray flux remaining below C level and just a couple of minor B-flares occurring. All regions on disk appear stable or in decay while a new region is rotating on disk in the North-East (Catania group 46, NOAA unnumbered). Quiet conditions are expected with a chance for a C flare occurrence. Solar proton flux levels were at background levels and expected to remain so. SoHO/LASCO coronagraph images show a CME onset from around 10:00UT October 10 onwards. The ejection is primarily Southward with an angular extent of around 150 degrees. The event is backsided and will hence not be geoeffective. No other significant CME onsets were recorded.

Solar wind conditions were nominal with solar wind speed increasing slightly from around 360 to around 400 km/s. Total magnetic field was in the 4-8.5nT range with a variable North South component. The magnetic field phi angle turned into the negative sector around 18:00UT. Solar wind conditions are expected to remain nominal with later on October 13 the possible passage of the October 9 CME which should only involve a small velocity increase, but may be accompanied with magnetic field perturbations. Geomagnetic conditions have been quiet to active (local K Dourbes 0-4, NOAA Kp 1-3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain quiet to unsettled with later on October 13 possibly minor to moderate geomagnetic storm levels associated with the possible CME arrival.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 067, sur la base de 15 stations.

Indices solaires pour 10 Oct 2016

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	097
Flux solaire à 10 cm	102
AK Chambon La Forêt	015
AK Wingst	013
Ap estimé	013
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	071 - Basé sur 29 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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