Affichage des archives de jeudi, 13 octobre 2016

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2016 Oct 13 1230 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Géomagnétisme

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
13 Oct 2016	096	040
14 Oct 2016	094	016
15 Oct 2016	094	007

Bulletin

Solar activity was low with a single C1.1 flare from Catania group 42 (NOAA active region 2599) which actually occurred right at the end of the previous reporting period. Further only B level activity was recorded. Catania group 42 (NOAA 2599) remains the most important possible source for flaring but in general, flaring is expected to remain below C level. Solar proton flux levels are at background levels and expected to remain so. No Earth directed CME's have been recorded in coronagraph data. A wide low latitude negative polarity coronal hole in the southern hemisphere is starting its transit of the central meridian and may influence the solar wind conditions near Earth starting 3 days from now.

Solar wind parameters showed the earlier than expected arrival of the CME of October 9. A shock was detected in the solar wind around 21:22UT October 12 with only a moderate increase in solar wind parameters as expected. Solar wind speed was since then in the 400-450 km/s range and total magnetic field was first only in the 5-10nT range. From around 5:30UT, a further increase in the total magnetic field to around 19nT set in with associated magnetic field rotation as evident from the magnetic field phi angle, and with also a pronounced and persistent negative North South component building up to -18nT. Magnetic field values may remain enhanced and could possibly still rise further during the remainder of the day but should afterwards start to show a decline towards nominal conditions. Over the next days, however, conditions may remain slightly enhanced under the influence of a negative polarity coronal hole. Geomagnetic conditions were first quiet to unsettled but reached minor storm levels (NOAA Kp=5 while local K Dourbes 4) following the persistent negative values of Bz. Geomagnetic storm conditions are expected to last over the rest of the day and into tomorrow, and may possibly reach moderate geomagnetic storm levels.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 044, sur la base de 15 stations.

Indices solaires pour 12 Oct 2016

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	080
Flux solaire à 10 cm	098
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	006
Ap estimé	005
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	042 - Basé sur 15 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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