Affichage des archives de dimanche, 17 décembre 2017

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2017 Dec 17 1230 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Géomagnétisme

Moderate (ISES: Major) magstorm expected (A>=50 or K=6)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
17 Dec 2017	071	036
18 Dec 2017	071	029
19 Dec 2017	071	015

Bulletin

The Sun produced no C flares in the past 24 hours. The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours is estimated at 5%. No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraphic imagery. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels. DSCOVR observed a disturbance in the solar wind around 21h UT on December 16. Since then, solar wind speed has increased to current values around 600 km/s. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) was mainly directed away from the Sun and its magnitude has increased from about 4 nT before 21h UT to values up to about 16 nT. Bz was variable and was consistently below -5 nT from about 3:30 until 6:00 UT. The observed enhancement in solar wind conditions is probably due to the arrival of an expected high speed stream of a recurrent positive equatorial coronal hole. Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes between 0 and 4; NOAA Kp between 1 and 5) were registered in the past 24 hours. Active to moderate storm conditions (K Dourbes = 4 to 6) are possible on December 17 and 18. Active geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes = 4) are possible on December 19, with a chance for minor geomagnetic storm intervals (K Dourbes = 5).

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 000, sur la base de 16 stations.

Indices solaires pour 16 Dec 2017

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	///
Flux solaire à 10 cm	071
AK Chambon La Forêt	012
AK Wingst	003
Ap estimé	003
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	000 - Basé sur 25 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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