Affichage des archives de vendredi, 30 mars 2018

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2018 Mar 30 1230 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
30 Mar 2018	072	008
31 Mar 2018	072	011
01 Apr 2018	072	007

Bulletin

Beta region NOAA AR 2703 has rotated from the East limb onto the visible hemisphere. This region produced several B flares and a C4.5 flare in the past 24 hours. The C4.5 flare peaked around 08:04 UT on March 30 and an associated Type II burst was observed in Humain around 8:10 UT. An associated CME was first observed by LASCO C2 at 8:48 UT and is not expected to be geoeffective. The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours is estimated at 50%, mainly from AR 2703.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours.

Solar wind near Earth showed the first signs of influence from the positive polarity, northern polar Coronal Hole (CH) wind stream around 6h UT on March 29, with increasing density and disturbed Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF). Solar wind speed suddenly increased from about 380 to 450 km/s around 17:26 UT on March 29, with current values around 425 km/s. The IMF was predominantly directed away from the Sun and its magnitude varied between about 1 and 10 nT. There were no prolonged intervals with Bz below -5 nT.

Quiet geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes between 1 and 2; NOAA Kp between 1 and 2) were registered in the past 24 hours. Under the influence of the wind stream from a positive polarity, northern polar coronal hole, active intervals (K Dourbes = 4) are possible on March 30 and 31. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes < 4) are expected on March 31.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 012, sur la base de 17 stations.

Indices solaires pour 29 Mar 2018

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	000
Flux solaire à 10 cm	069
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	005
Ap estimé	003
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	000 - Basé sur 23 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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